{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}/Users/benjaminleo/Downloads/PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics/Spring 25 PGMs CCs Log File .smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res}15 Jan 2025, 10:04:18

{com}. do "/var/folders/0b/y8j_2tds3kn13fqbrwfn13d40000gn/T//SD55117.000000"
{txt}
{com}. *PGMs and Civil Conflict Analysis 
. 
. 
. *This file uses the dataframe created in R to run the primary model, as well as the supplementary models that are included in the appendix
. 
. *Importing the dataframe created in R 
. use "/Users/benjaminleo/Downloads/PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics/pgm_cw_full.dta"
{txt}(Written by R.              )

{com}. gen obs=_n
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *////first section just for running models 
. 
. set seed 12345
{txt}
{com}. 
. *////Presence Model////
. logit cw_onset lag_presence v2x_polyarchy Vdem_sq log_milex log_rents gdppc total_size rugged peace_years post_cw peace_years_sq peace_years_cb, cluster(continent) robust 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-334.55302}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-307.16965}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res: -280.5426}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.58408}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.53079}  
Iteration 5:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.53058}  
Iteration 6:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.53058}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:4,723}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:{help j_robustsingular##|_new:Wald chi2(3)}}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-278.53058}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.1675}

{txt}{ralign 80:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:5} clusters in {res:continent})}
{hline 15}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 16}{c |}{col 28}    Robust
{col 1}      cw_onset{col 16}{c |} Coefficient{col 28}  std. err.{col 40}      z{col 48}   P>|z|{col 56}     [95% con{col 69}f. interval]
{hline 15}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 2}lag_presence {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .6314272{col 28}{space 2} .2669351{col 39}{space 1}    2.37{col 48}{space 3}0.018{col 56}{space 4}  .108244{col 69}{space 3}  1.15461
{txt}{space 1}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} 13.95274{col 28}{space 2} 3.507855{col 39}{space 1}    3.98{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}  7.07747{col 69}{space 3} 20.82801
{txt}{space 7}Vdem_sq {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-16.33254{col 28}{space 2} 3.680065{col 39}{space 1}   -4.44{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}-23.54534{col 69}{space 3}-9.119748
{txt}{space 5}log_milex {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .3140772{col 28}{space 2} .0878838{col 39}{space 1}    3.57{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4} .1418282{col 69}{space 3} .4863263
{txt}{space 5}log_rents {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0998949{col 28}{space 2}  .131975{col 39}{space 1}    0.76{col 48}{space 3}0.449{col 56}{space 4}-.1587713{col 69}{space 3} .3585611
{txt}{space 9}gdppc {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.6252724{col 28}{space 2} .1508899{col 39}{space 1}   -4.14{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}-.9210111{col 69}{space 3}-.3295337
{txt}{space 4}total_size {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .1014304{col 28}{space 2} .0265853{col 39}{space 1}    3.82{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4} .0493242{col 69}{space 3} .1535365
{txt}{space 8}rugged {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0660781{col 28}{space 2} .0863567{col 39}{space 1}    0.77{col 48}{space 3}0.444{col 56}{space 4} -.103178{col 69}{space 3} .2353341
{txt}{space 3}peace_years {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.1059499{col 28}{space 2} .0665233{col 39}{space 1}   -1.59{col 48}{space 3}0.111{col 56}{space 4} -.236333{col 69}{space 3} .0244333
{txt}{space 7}post_cw {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-1.066497{col 28}{space 2} .3685504{col 39}{space 1}   -2.89{col 48}{space 3}0.004{col 56}{space 4}-1.788842{col 69}{space 3}-.3441511
{txt}peace_years_sq {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0064168{col 28}{space 2} .0032715{col 39}{space 1}    1.96{col 48}{space 3}0.050{col 56}{space 4} 4.86e-06{col 69}{space 3} .0128288
{txt}peace_years_cb {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.0000806{col 28}{space 2} .0000389{col 39}{space 1}   -2.07{col 48}{space 3}0.038{col 56}{space 4}-.0001569{col 69}{space 3}-4.32e-06
{txt}{space 9}_cons {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-5.752893{col 28}{space 2} 1.677237{col 39}{space 1}   -3.43{col 48}{space 3}0.001{col 56}{space 4}-9.040216{col 69}{space 3}-2.465569
{txt}{hline 15}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 10 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:logit}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Log-likelihood}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Model}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -278.531}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Intercept-only}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -334.553}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Chi-square}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Deviance(df=4719)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    557.061}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:R2}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.167}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.155}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McKelvey & Zavoina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.612}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cox-Snell/ML}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.023}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cragg-Uhler/Nagelkerke}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.177}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Efron}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.043}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Tjur's D}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.040}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.987}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:IC}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    565.061}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC divided by N}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.120}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:BIC(df=4)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    590.902}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Variance of}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      3.290}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:y-star}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      8.476}}}{space 1}

{com}. 
. /* Calculate margins for lag_presence at values 0 and 1 */
. margins, at(lag_presence=(0 1))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Predictive margins{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:4,723}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(cw_onset), predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 12:lag_presence} = {res:{ralign 1:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 12:lag_presence} = {res:{ralign 1:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0091268{col 26}{space 2} .0021129{col 37}{space 1}    4.32{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0049856{col 67}{space 3} .0132679
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0167234{col 26}{space 2}  .002107{col 37}{space 1}    7.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0125937{col 67}{space 3} .0208531
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. *calculating % increase 
. di (.0167234 - .0091268) / .0091268
{res}.83233992
{txt}
{com}. di .83233992 * 100
{res}83.233992
{txt}
{com}. *83.233992%
. 
. 
. */////count model/////
. logit cw_onset lag_count v2x_polyarchy Vdem_sq log_milex log_rents gdppc total_size rugged peace_years post_cw peace_years_sq peace_years_cb, cluster(continent) robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-334.55302}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-311.57563}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-281.67614}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.99816}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.94761}  
Iteration 5:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.94741}  
Iteration 6:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.94741}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:4,723}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:{help j_robustsingular##|_new:Wald chi2(3)}}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-279.94741}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.1632}

{txt}{ralign 80:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:5} clusters in {res:continent})}
{hline 15}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 16}{c |}{col 28}    Robust
{col 1}      cw_onset{col 16}{c |} Coefficient{col 28}  std. err.{col 40}      z{col 48}   P>|z|{col 56}     [95% con{col 69}f. interval]
{hline 15}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}lag_count {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0425736{col 28}{space 2} .0420389{col 39}{space 1}    1.01{col 48}{space 3}0.311{col 56}{space 4}-.0398211{col 69}{space 3} .1249683
{txt}{space 1}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} 13.98848{col 28}{space 2}  3.63581{col 39}{space 1}    3.85{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4} 6.862422{col 69}{space 3} 21.11453
{txt}{space 7}Vdem_sq {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-16.47163{col 28}{space 2} 3.778662{col 39}{space 1}   -4.36{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}-23.87767{col 69}{space 3} -9.06559
{txt}{space 5}log_milex {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .3635544{col 28}{space 2} .1060842{col 39}{space 1}    3.43{col 48}{space 3}0.001{col 56}{space 4} .1556331{col 69}{space 3} .5714756
{txt}{space 5}log_rents {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}  .100988{col 28}{space 2} .1267616{col 39}{space 1}    0.80{col 48}{space 3}0.426{col 56}{space 4}-.1474601{col 69}{space 3} .3494362
{txt}{space 9}gdppc {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.6924916{col 28}{space 2} .1527464{col 39}{space 1}   -4.53{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}-.9918691{col 69}{space 3}-.3931141
{txt}{space 4}total_size {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .1032492{col 28}{space 2} .0240316{col 39}{space 1}    4.30{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}  .056148{col 69}{space 3} .1503503
{txt}{space 8}rugged {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0722565{col 28}{space 2} .0635585{col 39}{space 1}    1.14{col 48}{space 3}0.256{col 56}{space 4}-.0523159{col 69}{space 3} .1968289
{txt}{space 3}peace_years {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.1097938{col 28}{space 2} .0623294{col 39}{space 1}   -1.76{col 48}{space 3}0.078{col 56}{space 4}-.2319572{col 69}{space 3} .0123697
{txt}{space 7}post_cw {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-1.057105{col 28}{space 2} .3637176{col 39}{space 1}   -2.91{col 48}{space 3}0.004{col 56}{space 4}-1.769979{col 69}{space 3} -.344232
{txt}peace_years_sq {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0063826{col 28}{space 2} .0031834{col 39}{space 1}    2.01{col 48}{space 3}0.045{col 56}{space 4} .0001434{col 69}{space 3} .0126219
{txt}peace_years_cb {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.0000797{col 28}{space 2} .0000378{col 39}{space 1}   -2.11{col 48}{space 3}0.035{col 56}{space 4}-.0001537{col 69}{space 3}-5.73e-06
{txt}{space 9}_cons {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-5.501297{col 28}{space 2} 1.700349{col 39}{space 1}   -3.24{col 48}{space 3}0.001{col 56}{space 4}-8.833919{col 69}{space 3}-2.168674
{txt}{hline 15}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 21 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:logit}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Log-likelihood}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Model}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -279.947}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Intercept-only}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -334.553}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Chi-square}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Deviance(df=4719)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    559.895}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:R2}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.163}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.151}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McKelvey & Zavoina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.623}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cox-Snell/ML}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.023}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cragg-Uhler/Nagelkerke}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.173}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Efron}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.038}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Tjur's D}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.037}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.987}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:IC}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    567.895}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC divided by N}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.120}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:BIC(df=4)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    593.736}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Variance of}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      3.290}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:y-star}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      8.722}}}{space 1}

{com}. 
. */////type model/////
. logit cw_onset lag_not_govt_pgm lag_govt_pgm v2x_polyarchy Vdem_sq log_milex log_rents gdppc total_size rugged peace_years post_cw peace_years_sq peace_years_cb, cluster(continent) robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-334.55302}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-309.47566}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-280.21119}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.27397}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.22474}  
Iteration 5:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.22459}  
Iteration 6:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.22459}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:4,723}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:{help j_robustsingular##|_new:Wald chi2(3)}}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-278.22459}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.1684}

{txt}{ralign 82:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:5} clusters in {res:continent})}
{hline 17}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 18}{c |}{col 30}    Robust
{col 1}        cw_onset{col 18}{c |} Coefficient{col 30}  std. err.{col 42}      z{col 50}   P>|z|{col 58}     [95% con{col 71}f. interval]
{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
lag_not_govt_pgm {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .5898537{col 30}{space 2}   .11403{col 41}{space 1}    5.17{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .3663589{col 71}{space 3} .8133484
{txt}{space 4}lag_govt_pgm {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .1574844{col 30}{space 2} .2422864{col 41}{space 1}    0.65{col 50}{space 3}0.516{col 58}{space 4}-.3173883{col 71}{space 3} .6323571
{txt}{space 3}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} 13.46778{col 30}{space 2} 3.847012{col 41}{space 1}    3.50{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} 5.927778{col 71}{space 3} 21.00779
{txt}{space 9}Vdem_sq {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-15.85655{col 30}{space 2} 4.012171{col 41}{space 1}   -3.95{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-23.72026{col 71}{space 3}-7.992842
{txt}{space 7}log_milex {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .327972{col 30}{space 2} .0923871{col 41}{space 1}    3.55{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .1468966{col 71}{space 3} .5090473
{txt}{space 7}log_rents {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .107461{col 30}{space 2}   .13089{col 41}{space 1}    0.82{col 50}{space 3}0.412{col 58}{space 4}-.1490786{col 71}{space 3} .3640006
{txt}{space 11}gdppc {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} -.677487{col 30}{space 2} .1424081{col 41}{space 1}   -4.76{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.9566018{col 71}{space 3}-.3983723
{txt}{space 6}total_size {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .1024624{col 30}{space 2} .0246042{col 41}{space 1}    4.16{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}  .054239{col 71}{space 3} .1506858
{txt}{space 10}rugged {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0778755{col 30}{space 2} .0568841{col 41}{space 1}    1.37{col 50}{space 3}0.171{col 58}{space 4}-.0336152{col 71}{space 3} .1893662
{txt}{space 5}peace_years {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1087206{col 30}{space 2} .0745111{col 41}{space 1}   -1.46{col 50}{space 3}0.145{col 58}{space 4}-.2547597{col 71}{space 3} .0373184
{txt}{space 9}post_cw {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-1.142263{col 30}{space 2} .3600357{col 41}{space 1}   -3.17{col 50}{space 3}0.002{col 58}{space 4} -1.84792{col 71}{space 3}-.4366059
{txt}{space 2}peace_years_sq {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0063813{col 30}{space 2}  .003518{col 41}{space 1}    1.81{col 50}{space 3}0.070{col 58}{space 4}-.0005139{col 71}{space 3} .0132764
{txt}{space 2}peace_years_cb {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0000787{col 30}{space 2} .0000404{col 41}{space 1}   -1.95{col 50}{space 3}0.051{col 58}{space 4}-.0001578{col 71}{space 3} 4.96e-07
{txt}{space 11}_cons {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-5.266593{col 30}{space 2} 1.705696{col 41}{space 1}   -3.09{col 50}{space 3}0.002{col 58}{space 4}-8.609696{col 71}{space 3}-1.923491
{txt}{hline 17}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 10 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:logit}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Log-likelihood}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Model}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -278.225}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Intercept-only}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -334.553}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Chi-square}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Deviance(df=4719)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    556.449}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:R2}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.168}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.156}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McKelvey & Zavoina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.613}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cox-Snell/ML}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.024}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cragg-Uhler/Nagelkerke}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.178}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Efron}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.042}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Tjur's D}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.040}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.987}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:IC}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    564.449}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC divided by N}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.120}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:BIC(df=4)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    590.290}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Variance of}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      3.290}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:y-star}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      8.497}}}{space 1}

{com}. 
. *Calculating substantive effect 
. margins, at(lag_not_govt_pgm =(0 1))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Predictive margins{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:4,723}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(cw_onset), predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:lag_not_govt_pgm} = {res:{ralign 1:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:lag_not_govt_pgm} = {res:{ralign 1:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0108889{col 26}{space 2} .0012391{col 37}{space 1}    8.79{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0084602{col 67}{space 3} .0133176
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0190621{col 26}{space 2} .0022872{col 37}{space 1}    8.33{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0145792{col 67}{space 3}  .023545
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. di ((.0190621 - .0108889) / .0108889) * 100 
{res}75.059923
{txt}
{com}. *75% 
. 
. */////type count model/////
. logit cw_onset lag_govt_pgm_count lag_not_govt_pgm_count v2x_polyarchy Vdem_sq log_milex log_rents gdppc total_size rugged peace_years post_cw peace_years_sq peace_years_cb, cluster(continent) robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-334.55302}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-315.76204}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-281.41482}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.65948}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.60996}  
Iteration 5:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.60979}  
Iteration 6:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.60979}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:4,723}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:{help j_robustsingular##|_new:Wald chi2(3)}}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-279.60979}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.1642}

{txt}{ralign 83:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:5} clusters in {res:continent})}
{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 19}{c |}{col 31}    Robust
{col 1}         cw_onset{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  std. err.{col 43}      z{col 51}   P>|z|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
lag_govt_pgm_co~t {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0278775{col 31}{space 2}  .034397{col 42}{space 1}    0.81{col 51}{space 3}0.418{col 59}{space 4}-.0395395{col 72}{space 3} .0952945
{txt}lag_not_govt_pg~t {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0935171{col 31}{space 2} .0426255{col 42}{space 1}    2.19{col 51}{space 3}0.028{col 59}{space 4} .0099727{col 72}{space 3} .1770614
{txt}{space 4}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 13.71327{col 31}{space 2} 3.476003{col 42}{space 1}    3.95{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 6.900424{col 72}{space 3} 20.52611
{txt}{space 10}Vdem_sq {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-16.09567{col 31}{space 2} 3.712724{col 42}{space 1}   -4.34{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-23.37247{col 72}{space 3}-8.818864
{txt}{space 8}log_milex {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}  .354347{col 31}{space 2}  .103935{col 42}{space 1}    3.41{col 51}{space 3}0.001{col 59}{space 4} .1506382{col 72}{space 3} .5580559
{txt}{space 8}log_rents {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .1091224{col 31}{space 2} .1248542{col 42}{space 1}    0.87{col 51}{space 3}0.382{col 59}{space 4}-.1355875{col 72}{space 3} .3538322
{txt}{space 12}gdppc {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.6861263{col 31}{space 2} .1525015{col 42}{space 1}   -4.50{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-.9850238{col 72}{space 3}-.3872288
{txt}{space 7}total_size {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .1009799{col 31}{space 2} .0254283{col 42}{space 1}    3.97{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .0511413{col 72}{space 3} .1508186
{txt}{space 11}rugged {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0766165{col 31}{space 2} .0523024{col 42}{space 1}    1.46{col 51}{space 3}0.143{col 59}{space 4}-.0258944{col 72}{space 3} .1791273
{txt}{space 6}peace_years {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.1131449{col 31}{space 2} .0662472{col 42}{space 1}   -1.71{col 51}{space 3}0.088{col 59}{space 4} -.242987{col 72}{space 3} .0166971
{txt}{space 10}post_cw {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-1.088861{col 31}{space 2} .3777512{col 42}{space 1}   -2.88{col 51}{space 3}0.004{col 59}{space 4}-1.829239{col 72}{space 3} -.348482
{txt}{space 3}peace_years_sq {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0065077{col 31}{space 2} .0032712{col 42}{space 1}    1.99{col 51}{space 3}0.047{col 59}{space 4} .0000963{col 72}{space 3} .0129191
{txt}{space 3}peace_years_cb {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.0000808{col 31}{space 2} .0000382{col 42}{space 1}   -2.12{col 51}{space 3}0.034{col 59}{space 4}-.0001556{col 72}{space 3}-5.98e-06
{txt}{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-5.397031{col 31}{space 2} 1.642482{col 42}{space 1}   -3.29{col 51}{space 3}0.001{col 59}{space 4}-8.616237{col 72}{space 3}-2.177825
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 18 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:logit}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Log-likelihood}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Model}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -279.610}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Intercept-only}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -334.553}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Chi-square}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Deviance(df=4719)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    559.220}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:R2}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.164}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.152}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McKelvey & Zavoina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.617}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cox-Snell/ML}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.023}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cragg-Uhler/Nagelkerke}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.174}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Efron}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.039}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Tjur's D}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.038}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.987}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:IC}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    567.220}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC divided by N}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.120}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:BIC(df=4)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    593.060}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Variance of}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      3.290}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:y-star}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      8.595}}}{space 1}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. *////MAKING TABLES FOR PAPER/////////////////////
. 
. *Main Model for paper (with outliers removed)
. *model 1
. logit cw_onset lag_presence v2x_polyarchy Vdem_sq gdppc log_milex log_rents rugged total_size post_cw peace_years peace_years_sq peace_years_cb, cluster(continent) robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-334.55302}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-307.16965}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res: -280.5426}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.58408}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.53079}  
Iteration 5:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.53058}  
Iteration 6:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.53058}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:4,723}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:{help j_robustsingular##|_new:Wald chi2(3)}}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-278.53058}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.1675}

{txt}{ralign 80:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:5} clusters in {res:continent})}
{hline 15}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 16}{c |}{col 28}    Robust
{col 1}      cw_onset{col 16}{c |} Coefficient{col 28}  std. err.{col 40}      z{col 48}   P>|z|{col 56}     [95% con{col 69}f. interval]
{hline 15}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 2}lag_presence {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .6314272{col 28}{space 2} .2669351{col 39}{space 1}    2.37{col 48}{space 3}0.018{col 56}{space 4}  .108244{col 69}{space 3}  1.15461
{txt}{space 1}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} 13.95274{col 28}{space 2} 3.507855{col 39}{space 1}    3.98{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}  7.07747{col 69}{space 3} 20.82801
{txt}{space 7}Vdem_sq {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-16.33254{col 28}{space 2} 3.680065{col 39}{space 1}   -4.44{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}-23.54534{col 69}{space 3}-9.119748
{txt}{space 9}gdppc {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.6252724{col 28}{space 2} .1508899{col 39}{space 1}   -4.14{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}-.9210111{col 69}{space 3}-.3295337
{txt}{space 5}log_milex {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .3140772{col 28}{space 2} .0878838{col 39}{space 1}    3.57{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4} .1418282{col 69}{space 3} .4863263
{txt}{space 5}log_rents {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0998949{col 28}{space 2}  .131975{col 39}{space 1}    0.76{col 48}{space 3}0.449{col 56}{space 4}-.1587713{col 69}{space 3} .3585611
{txt}{space 8}rugged {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0660781{col 28}{space 2} .0863567{col 39}{space 1}    0.77{col 48}{space 3}0.444{col 56}{space 4} -.103178{col 69}{space 3} .2353341
{txt}{space 4}total_size {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .1014304{col 28}{space 2} .0265853{col 39}{space 1}    3.82{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4} .0493242{col 69}{space 3} .1535365
{txt}{space 7}post_cw {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-1.066497{col 28}{space 2} .3685504{col 39}{space 1}   -2.89{col 48}{space 3}0.004{col 56}{space 4}-1.788842{col 69}{space 3}-.3441511
{txt}{space 3}peace_years {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.1059499{col 28}{space 2} .0665233{col 39}{space 1}   -1.59{col 48}{space 3}0.111{col 56}{space 4} -.236333{col 69}{space 3} .0244333
{txt}peace_years_sq {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0064168{col 28}{space 2} .0032715{col 39}{space 1}    1.96{col 48}{space 3}0.050{col 56}{space 4} 4.86e-06{col 69}{space 3} .0128288
{txt}peace_years_cb {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.0000806{col 28}{space 2} .0000389{col 39}{space 1}   -2.07{col 48}{space 3}0.038{col 56}{space 4}-.0001569{col 69}{space 3}-4.32e-06
{txt}{space 9}_cons {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-5.752893{col 28}{space 2} 1.677237{col 39}{space 1}   -3.43{col 48}{space 3}0.001{col 56}{space 4}-9.040216{col 69}{space 3}-2.465569
{txt}{hline 15}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 10 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:logit}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Log-likelihood}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Model}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -278.531}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Intercept-only}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -334.553}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Chi-square}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Deviance(df=4719)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    557.061}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:R2}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.167}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.155}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McKelvey & Zavoina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.612}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cox-Snell/ML}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.023}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cragg-Uhler/Nagelkerke}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.177}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Efron}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.043}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Tjur's D}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.040}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.987}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:IC}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    565.061}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC divided by N}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.120}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:BIC(df=4)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    590.902}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Variance of}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      3.290}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:y-star}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      8.476}}}{space 1}

{com}. 
. outreg2 using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\main_results.doc", word nonotes  lab bdec(3) pvalue addstat(Log pseudo-likelihood, e(ll)) nor2 title("Results") alpha(.001, .01, .05, .1) symbol(***, **, *, †) addnote(Dependent Variable is Civil Conflict Onset, *** p<0.001 ** p<.01 * p<0.05 † p<.1 , Robust Standard Errors are clustered by continent) replace 
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `"C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\main_results.doc"'"':C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\main_results.doc}
{browse `"/Users/benjaminleo/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/PGMs and CC Replication Matireals "' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\main_results.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. *model 2
. logit cw_onset lag_count v2x_polyarchy Vdem_sq gdppc log_milex log_rents rugged total_size post_cw peace_years peace_years_sq peace_years_cb, cluster(continent) robust 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-334.55302}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-311.57563}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-281.67614}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.99816}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.94761}  
Iteration 5:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.94741}  
Iteration 6:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.94741}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:4,723}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:{help j_robustsingular##|_new:Wald chi2(3)}}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-279.94741}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.1632}

{txt}{ralign 80:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:5} clusters in {res:continent})}
{hline 15}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 16}{c |}{col 28}    Robust
{col 1}      cw_onset{col 16}{c |} Coefficient{col 28}  std. err.{col 40}      z{col 48}   P>|z|{col 56}     [95% con{col 69}f. interval]
{hline 15}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}lag_count {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0425736{col 28}{space 2} .0420389{col 39}{space 1}    1.01{col 48}{space 3}0.311{col 56}{space 4}-.0398211{col 69}{space 3} .1249683
{txt}{space 1}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} 13.98848{col 28}{space 2}  3.63581{col 39}{space 1}    3.85{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4} 6.862422{col 69}{space 3} 21.11453
{txt}{space 7}Vdem_sq {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-16.47163{col 28}{space 2} 3.778662{col 39}{space 1}   -4.36{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}-23.87767{col 69}{space 3} -9.06559
{txt}{space 9}gdppc {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.6924916{col 28}{space 2} .1527464{col 39}{space 1}   -4.53{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}-.9918691{col 69}{space 3}-.3931141
{txt}{space 5}log_milex {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .3635544{col 28}{space 2} .1060842{col 39}{space 1}    3.43{col 48}{space 3}0.001{col 56}{space 4} .1556331{col 69}{space 3} .5714756
{txt}{space 5}log_rents {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}  .100988{col 28}{space 2} .1267616{col 39}{space 1}    0.80{col 48}{space 3}0.426{col 56}{space 4}-.1474601{col 69}{space 3} .3494362
{txt}{space 8}rugged {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0722565{col 28}{space 2} .0635585{col 39}{space 1}    1.14{col 48}{space 3}0.256{col 56}{space 4}-.0523159{col 69}{space 3} .1968289
{txt}{space 4}total_size {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .1032492{col 28}{space 2} .0240316{col 39}{space 1}    4.30{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}  .056148{col 69}{space 3} .1503503
{txt}{space 7}post_cw {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-1.057105{col 28}{space 2} .3637176{col 39}{space 1}   -2.91{col 48}{space 3}0.004{col 56}{space 4}-1.769979{col 69}{space 3} -.344232
{txt}{space 3}peace_years {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.1097938{col 28}{space 2} .0623294{col 39}{space 1}   -1.76{col 48}{space 3}0.078{col 56}{space 4}-.2319572{col 69}{space 3} .0123697
{txt}peace_years_sq {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0063826{col 28}{space 2} .0031834{col 39}{space 1}    2.01{col 48}{space 3}0.045{col 56}{space 4} .0001434{col 69}{space 3} .0126219
{txt}peace_years_cb {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.0000797{col 28}{space 2} .0000378{col 39}{space 1}   -2.11{col 48}{space 3}0.035{col 56}{space 4}-.0001537{col 69}{space 3}-5.73e-06
{txt}{space 9}_cons {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-5.501297{col 28}{space 2} 1.700349{col 39}{space 1}   -3.24{col 48}{space 3}0.001{col 56}{space 4}-8.833919{col 69}{space 3}-2.168674
{txt}{hline 15}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 21 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:logit}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Log-likelihood}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Model}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -279.947}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Intercept-only}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -334.553}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Chi-square}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Deviance(df=4719)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    559.895}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:R2}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.163}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.151}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McKelvey & Zavoina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.623}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cox-Snell/ML}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.023}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cragg-Uhler/Nagelkerke}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.173}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Efron}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.038}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Tjur's D}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.037}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.987}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:IC}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    567.895}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC divided by N}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.120}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:BIC(df=4)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    593.736}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Variance of}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      3.290}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:y-star}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      8.722}}}{space 1}

{com}. 
. outreg2 using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\main_results.doc", word nonotes  lab bdec(3) pvalue addstat(Log pseudo-likelihood, e(ll)) nor2 title("Results") alpha(.001, .01, .05, .1) symbol(***, **, *, †) addnote(Dependent Variable is Civil Conflict Onset, *** p<0.001 ** p<.01 * p<0.05 † p<.1 , Robust Standard Errors are clustered by continent) append
{res}warning: addnote ignored in appended columns
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `"C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\main_results.doc"'"':C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\main_results.doc}
{browse `"/Users/benjaminleo/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/PGMs and CC Replication Matireals "' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\main_results.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. *model 3
. logit cw_onset lag_not_govt_pgm lag_govt_pgm v2x_polyarchy Vdem_sq gdppc log_milex log_rents rugged total_size post_cw peace_years peace_years_sq peace_years_cb, cluster(continent) robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-334.55302}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-309.47566}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-280.21119}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.27397}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.22474}  
Iteration 5:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.22459}  
Iteration 6:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.22459}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:4,723}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:{help j_robustsingular##|_new:Wald chi2(3)}}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-278.22459}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.1684}

{txt}{ralign 82:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:5} clusters in {res:continent})}
{hline 17}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 18}{c |}{col 30}    Robust
{col 1}        cw_onset{col 18}{c |} Coefficient{col 30}  std. err.{col 42}      z{col 50}   P>|z|{col 58}     [95% con{col 71}f. interval]
{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
lag_not_govt_pgm {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .5898537{col 30}{space 2}   .11403{col 41}{space 1}    5.17{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .3663589{col 71}{space 3} .8133484
{txt}{space 4}lag_govt_pgm {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .1574844{col 30}{space 2} .2422864{col 41}{space 1}    0.65{col 50}{space 3}0.516{col 58}{space 4}-.3173883{col 71}{space 3} .6323571
{txt}{space 3}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} 13.46778{col 30}{space 2} 3.847012{col 41}{space 1}    3.50{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} 5.927778{col 71}{space 3} 21.00779
{txt}{space 9}Vdem_sq {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-15.85655{col 30}{space 2} 4.012171{col 41}{space 1}   -3.95{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-23.72026{col 71}{space 3}-7.992842
{txt}{space 11}gdppc {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} -.677487{col 30}{space 2} .1424081{col 41}{space 1}   -4.76{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.9566018{col 71}{space 3}-.3983723
{txt}{space 7}log_milex {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .327972{col 30}{space 2} .0923871{col 41}{space 1}    3.55{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .1468966{col 71}{space 3} .5090473
{txt}{space 7}log_rents {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .107461{col 30}{space 2}   .13089{col 41}{space 1}    0.82{col 50}{space 3}0.412{col 58}{space 4}-.1490786{col 71}{space 3} .3640006
{txt}{space 10}rugged {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0778755{col 30}{space 2} .0568841{col 41}{space 1}    1.37{col 50}{space 3}0.171{col 58}{space 4}-.0336152{col 71}{space 3} .1893662
{txt}{space 6}total_size {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .1024624{col 30}{space 2} .0246042{col 41}{space 1}    4.16{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}  .054239{col 71}{space 3} .1506858
{txt}{space 9}post_cw {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-1.142263{col 30}{space 2} .3600357{col 41}{space 1}   -3.17{col 50}{space 3}0.002{col 58}{space 4} -1.84792{col 71}{space 3}-.4366059
{txt}{space 5}peace_years {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.1087206{col 30}{space 2} .0745111{col 41}{space 1}   -1.46{col 50}{space 3}0.145{col 58}{space 4}-.2547597{col 71}{space 3} .0373184
{txt}{space 2}peace_years_sq {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0063813{col 30}{space 2}  .003518{col 41}{space 1}    1.81{col 50}{space 3}0.070{col 58}{space 4}-.0005139{col 71}{space 3} .0132764
{txt}{space 2}peace_years_cb {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0000787{col 30}{space 2} .0000404{col 41}{space 1}   -1.95{col 50}{space 3}0.051{col 58}{space 4}-.0001578{col 71}{space 3} 4.96e-07
{txt}{space 11}_cons {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-5.266593{col 30}{space 2} 1.705696{col 41}{space 1}   -3.09{col 50}{space 3}0.002{col 58}{space 4}-8.609696{col 71}{space 3}-1.923491
{txt}{hline 17}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 10 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:logit}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Log-likelihood}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Model}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -278.225}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Intercept-only}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -334.553}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Chi-square}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Deviance(df=4719)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    556.449}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:R2}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.168}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.156}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McKelvey & Zavoina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.613}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cox-Snell/ML}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.024}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cragg-Uhler/Nagelkerke}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.178}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Efron}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.042}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Tjur's D}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.040}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.987}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:IC}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    564.449}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC divided by N}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.120}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:BIC(df=4)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    590.290}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Variance of}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      3.290}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:y-star}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      8.497}}}{space 1}

{com}. 
. outreg2 using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\main_results.doc", word nonotes  lab bdec(3) pvalue addstat(Log pseudo-likelihood, e(ll)) nor2 title("Results") alpha(.001, .01, .05, .1) symbol(***, **, *, †) addnote(Dependent Variable is Civil Conflict Onset, *** p<0.001 ** p<.01 * p<0.05 † p<.1 , Robust Standard Errors are clustered by continent) append
{res}warning: addnote ignored in appended columns
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `"C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\main_results.doc"'"':C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\main_results.doc}
{browse `"/Users/benjaminleo/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/PGMs and CC Replication Matireals "' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\main_results.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. *model 4
. logit cw_onset lag_govt_pgm_count lag_not_govt_pgm_count v2x_polyarchy Vdem_sq gdppc log_milex log_rents rugged total_size post_cw peace_years peace_years_sq peace_years_cb, cluster(continent) robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-334.55302}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-315.76204}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-281.41482}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.65948}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.60996}  
Iteration 5:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.60979}  
Iteration 6:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.60979}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:4,723}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:{help j_robustsingular##|_new:Wald chi2(3)}}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-279.60979}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.1642}

{txt}{ralign 83:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:5} clusters in {res:continent})}
{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 19}{c |}{col 31}    Robust
{col 1}         cw_onset{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  std. err.{col 43}      z{col 51}   P>|z|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
lag_govt_pgm_co~t {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0278775{col 31}{space 2}  .034397{col 42}{space 1}    0.81{col 51}{space 3}0.418{col 59}{space 4}-.0395395{col 72}{space 3} .0952945
{txt}lag_not_govt_pg~t {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0935171{col 31}{space 2} .0426255{col 42}{space 1}    2.19{col 51}{space 3}0.028{col 59}{space 4} .0099727{col 72}{space 3} .1770614
{txt}{space 4}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 13.71327{col 31}{space 2} 3.476003{col 42}{space 1}    3.95{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 6.900424{col 72}{space 3} 20.52611
{txt}{space 10}Vdem_sq {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-16.09567{col 31}{space 2} 3.712724{col 42}{space 1}   -4.34{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-23.37247{col 72}{space 3}-8.818864
{txt}{space 12}gdppc {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.6861263{col 31}{space 2} .1525015{col 42}{space 1}   -4.50{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-.9850238{col 72}{space 3}-.3872288
{txt}{space 8}log_milex {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}  .354347{col 31}{space 2}  .103935{col 42}{space 1}    3.41{col 51}{space 3}0.001{col 59}{space 4} .1506382{col 72}{space 3} .5580559
{txt}{space 8}log_rents {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .1091224{col 31}{space 2} .1248542{col 42}{space 1}    0.87{col 51}{space 3}0.382{col 59}{space 4}-.1355875{col 72}{space 3} .3538322
{txt}{space 11}rugged {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0766165{col 31}{space 2} .0523024{col 42}{space 1}    1.46{col 51}{space 3}0.143{col 59}{space 4}-.0258944{col 72}{space 3} .1791273
{txt}{space 7}total_size {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .1009799{col 31}{space 2} .0254283{col 42}{space 1}    3.97{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .0511413{col 72}{space 3} .1508186
{txt}{space 10}post_cw {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-1.088861{col 31}{space 2} .3777512{col 42}{space 1}   -2.88{col 51}{space 3}0.004{col 59}{space 4}-1.829239{col 72}{space 3} -.348482
{txt}{space 6}peace_years {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.1131449{col 31}{space 2} .0662472{col 42}{space 1}   -1.71{col 51}{space 3}0.088{col 59}{space 4} -.242987{col 72}{space 3} .0166971
{txt}{space 3}peace_years_sq {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0065077{col 31}{space 2} .0032712{col 42}{space 1}    1.99{col 51}{space 3}0.047{col 59}{space 4} .0000963{col 72}{space 3} .0129191
{txt}{space 3}peace_years_cb {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.0000808{col 31}{space 2} .0000382{col 42}{space 1}   -2.12{col 51}{space 3}0.034{col 59}{space 4}-.0001556{col 72}{space 3}-5.98e-06
{txt}{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-5.397031{col 31}{space 2} 1.642482{col 42}{space 1}   -3.29{col 51}{space 3}0.001{col 59}{space 4}-8.616237{col 72}{space 3}-2.177825
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 18 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:logit}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Log-likelihood}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Model}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -279.610}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Intercept-only}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -334.553}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Chi-square}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Deviance(df=4719)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    559.220}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:R2}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.164}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.152}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McKelvey & Zavoina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.617}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cox-Snell/ML}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.023}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cragg-Uhler/Nagelkerke}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.174}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Efron}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.039}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Tjur's D}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.038}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.987}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:IC}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    567.220}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC divided by N}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.120}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:BIC(df=4)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    593.060}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Variance of}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      3.290}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:y-star}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      8.595}}}{space 1}

{com}. 
. outreg2 using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\main_results.doc", word nonotes  lab bdec(3) pvalue addstat(Log pseudo-likelihood, e(ll)) nor2 title("Results") alpha(.001, .01, .05, .1) symbol(***, **, *, †) addnote(Dependent Variable is Civil Conflict Onset, *** p<0.001 ** p<.01 * p<0.05 † p<.1 , Robust Standard Errors are clustered by continent) append
{res}warning: addnote ignored in appended columns
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `"C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\main_results.doc"'"':C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\main_results.doc}
{browse `"/Users/benjaminleo/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/PGMs and CC Replication Matireals "' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\main_results.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. *****Appendix Models*************
. 
. 
. 
. *Appendix Table 1: Probit models  
. 
. *model 1
. probit cw_onset lag_presence v2x_polyarchy Vdem_sq gdppc log_milex log_rents rugged total_size post_cw peace_years peace_years_sq peace_years_cb, cluster(continent) robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-334.55302}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-292.70359}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.60658}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.83097}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.81052}  
Iteration 5:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.81049}  
Iteration 6:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.81049}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Probit regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:4,723}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:{help j_robustsingular##|_new:Wald chi2(3)}}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-278.81049}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.1666}

{txt}{ralign 80:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:5} clusters in {res:continent})}
{hline 15}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 16}{c |}{col 28}    Robust
{col 1}      cw_onset{col 16}{c |} Coefficient{col 28}  std. err.{col 40}      z{col 48}   P>|z|{col 56}     [95% con{col 69}f. interval]
{hline 15}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 2}lag_presence {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}  .219862{col 28}{space 2} .1017877{col 39}{space 1}    2.16{col 48}{space 3}0.031{col 56}{space 4} .0203617{col 69}{space 3} .4193622
{txt}{space 1}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} 5.547274{col 28}{space 2} 1.326676{col 39}{space 1}    4.18{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4} 2.947036{col 69}{space 3} 8.147512
{txt}{space 7}Vdem_sq {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-6.599783{col 28}{space 2} 1.460353{col 39}{space 1}   -4.52{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}-9.462022{col 69}{space 3}-3.737544
{txt}{space 9}gdppc {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.2747453{col 28}{space 2} .0549675{col 39}{space 1}   -5.00{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}-.3824796{col 69}{space 3} -.167011
{txt}{space 5}log_milex {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .1410293{col 28}{space 2} .0270029{col 39}{space 1}    5.22{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4} .0881045{col 69}{space 3} .1939541
{txt}{space 5}log_rents {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0351857{col 28}{space 2} .0515299{col 39}{space 1}    0.68{col 48}{space 3}0.495{col 56}{space 4}-.0658111{col 69}{space 3} .1361825
{txt}{space 8}rugged {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0280023{col 28}{space 2} .0272819{col 39}{space 1}    1.03{col 48}{space 3}0.305{col 56}{space 4}-.0254693{col 69}{space 3}  .081474
{txt}{space 4}total_size {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0371499{col 28}{space 2} .0085359{col 39}{space 1}    4.35{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4} .0204198{col 69}{space 3} .0538799
{txt}{space 7}post_cw {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.4318409{col 28}{space 2} .1547686{col 39}{space 1}   -2.79{col 48}{space 3}0.005{col 56}{space 4}-.7351818{col 69}{space 3}-.1285001
{txt}{space 3}peace_years {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} -.040675{col 28}{space 2} .0245469{col 39}{space 1}   -1.66{col 48}{space 3}0.098{col 56}{space 4}-.0887861{col 69}{space 3} .0074361
{txt}peace_years_sq {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0024696{col 28}{space 2}  .001234{col 39}{space 1}    2.00{col 48}{space 3}0.045{col 56}{space 4} .0000511{col 69}{space 3} .0048881
{txt}peace_years_cb {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.0000313{col 28}{space 2} .0000148{col 39}{space 1}   -2.12{col 48}{space 3}0.034{col 56}{space 4}-.0000602{col 69}{space 3}-2.34e-06
{txt}{space 9}_cons {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-2.688558{col 28}{space 2} .6082973{col 39}{space 1}   -4.42{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}-3.880799{col 69}{space 3}-1.496318
{txt}{hline 15}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 37 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:probit}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Log-likelihood}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Model}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -278.810}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Intercept-only}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -334.553}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Chi-square}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Deviance(df=4719)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    557.621}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:R2}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.167}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.155}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McKelvey & Zavoina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.476}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cox-Snell/ML}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.023}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cragg-Uhler/Nagelkerke}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.177}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Efron}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.038}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Tjur's D}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.035}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.987}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:IC}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    565.621}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC divided by N}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.120}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:BIC(df=4)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    591.462}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Variance of}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      1.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:y-star}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      1.909}}}{space 1}

{com}. 
. outreg2 using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_probit.doc", word nonotes  lab bdec(3) pvalue addstat(Log pseudo-likelihood, e(ll)) nor2 title("Results") alpha(.001, .01, .05, .1) symbol(***, **, *, †) addnote(Dependent Variable is Civil Conflict Onset,*** p<0.001 ** p<.01 * p<0.05 † p<.1, Robust Standard Errors are clustered by continent) replace 
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `"C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_probit.doc"'"':C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_probit.doc}
{browse `"/Users/benjaminleo/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/PGMs and CC Replication Matireals "' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_probit.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. *model 2
. probit cw_onset lag_count v2x_polyarchy Vdem_sq gdppc log_milex log_rents rugged total_size post_cw peace_years peace_years_sq peace_years_cb, cluster(continent) robust 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-334.55302}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-294.90124}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-280.60702}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.86133}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.84013}  
Iteration 5:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.84009}  
Iteration 6:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.84009}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Probit regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:4,723}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:{help j_robustsingular##|_new:Wald chi2(3)}}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-279.84009}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.1635}

{txt}{ralign 80:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:5} clusters in {res:continent})}
{hline 15}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 16}{c |}{col 28}    Robust
{col 1}      cw_onset{col 16}{c |} Coefficient{col 28}  std. err.{col 40}      z{col 48}   P>|z|{col 56}     [95% con{col 69}f. interval]
{hline 15}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}lag_count {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0179493{col 28}{space 2} .0188529{col 39}{space 1}    0.95{col 48}{space 3}0.341{col 56}{space 4}-.0190016{col 69}{space 3} .0549002
{txt}{space 1}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} 5.607691{col 28}{space 2} 1.364381{col 39}{space 1}    4.11{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4} 2.933554{col 69}{space 3} 8.281829
{txt}{space 7}Vdem_sq {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} -6.70405{col 28}{space 2} 1.478416{col 39}{space 1}   -4.53{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}-9.601693{col 69}{space 3}-3.806408
{txt}{space 9}gdppc {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.2946254{col 28}{space 2} .0544429{col 39}{space 1}   -5.41{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}-.4013315{col 69}{space 3}-.1879192
{txt}{space 5}log_milex {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .1577436{col 28}{space 2} .0342017{col 39}{space 1}    4.61{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4} .0907094{col 69}{space 3} .2247778
{txt}{space 5}log_rents {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0344848{col 28}{space 2} .0499895{col 39}{space 1}    0.69{col 48}{space 3}0.490{col 56}{space 4}-.0634928{col 69}{space 3} .1324624
{txt}{space 8}rugged {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0323185{col 28}{space 2} .0210005{col 39}{space 1}    1.54{col 48}{space 3}0.124{col 56}{space 4}-.0088418{col 69}{space 3} .0734788
{txt}{space 4}total_size {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0377971{col 28}{space 2}  .007082{col 39}{space 1}    5.34{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4} .0239166{col 69}{space 3} .0516776
{txt}{space 7}post_cw {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} -.432228{col 28}{space 2} .1530348{col 39}{space 1}   -2.82{col 48}{space 3}0.005{col 56}{space 4}-.7321707{col 69}{space 3}-.1322852
{txt}{space 3}peace_years {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.0435673{col 28}{space 2}  .022387{col 39}{space 1}   -1.95{col 48}{space 3}0.052{col 56}{space 4}-.0874451{col 69}{space 3} .0003105
{txt}peace_years_sq {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0025459{col 28}{space 2} .0011676{col 39}{space 1}    2.18{col 48}{space 3}0.029{col 56}{space 4} .0002573{col 69}{space 3} .0048344
{txt}peace_years_cb {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.0000319{col 28}{space 2} .0000139{col 39}{space 1}   -2.30{col 48}{space 3}0.022{col 56}{space 4}-.0000592{col 69}{space 3}-4.68e-06
{txt}{space 9}_cons {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-2.640483{col 28}{space 2} .6026325{col 39}{space 1}   -4.38{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}-3.821621{col 69}{space 3}-1.459345
{txt}{hline 15}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 63 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:probit}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Log-likelihood}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Model}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -279.840}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Intercept-only}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -334.553}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Chi-square}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Deviance(df=4719)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    559.680}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:R2}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.164}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.152}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McKelvey & Zavoina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.486}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cox-Snell/ML}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.023}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cragg-Uhler/Nagelkerke}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.173}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Efron}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.035}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Tjur's D}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.033}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.987}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:IC}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    567.680}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC divided by N}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.120}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:BIC(df=4)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    593.521}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Variance of}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      1.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:y-star}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      1.946}}}{space 1}

{com}. 
. outreg2 using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_probit.doc", word nonotes  lab bdec(3) pvalue addstat(Log pseudo-likelihood, e(ll)) nor2 title("Results") alpha(.001, .01, .05, .1) symbol(***, **, *, †) addnote(Dependent Variable is Civil Conflict Onset, *** p<0.001 ** p<.01 * p<0.05 † p<.1 , Robust Standard Errors are clustered by continent) append
{res}warning: addnote ignored in appended columns
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `"C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_probit.doc"'"':C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_probit.doc}
{browse `"/Users/benjaminleo/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/PGMs and CC Replication Matireals "' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_probit.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. *model 3
. probit cw_onset lag_not_govt_pgm lag_govt_pgm v2x_polyarchy Vdem_sq gdppc log_milex log_rents rugged total_size post_cw peace_years peace_years_sq peace_years_cb, cluster(continent) robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-334.55302}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-292.66669}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.28784}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.49126}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.47357}  
Iteration 5:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.47353}  
Iteration 6:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-278.47353}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Probit regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:4,723}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:{help j_robustsingular##|_new:Wald chi2(3)}}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-278.47353}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.1676}

{txt}{ralign 82:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:5} clusters in {res:continent})}
{hline 17}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 18}{c |}{col 30}    Robust
{col 1}        cw_onset{col 18}{c |} Coefficient{col 30}  std. err.{col 42}      z{col 50}   P>|z|{col 58}     [95% con{col 71}f. interval]
{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
lag_not_govt_pgm {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .2297618{col 30}{space 2} .0569969{col 41}{space 1}    4.03{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .1180499{col 71}{space 3} .3414737
{txt}{space 4}lag_govt_pgm {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0373526{col 30}{space 2} .0997309{col 41}{space 1}    0.37{col 50}{space 3}0.708{col 58}{space 4}-.1581163{col 71}{space 3} .2328215
{txt}{space 3}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} 5.429647{col 30}{space 2} 1.422841{col 41}{space 1}    3.82{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} 2.640931{col 71}{space 3} 8.218364
{txt}{space 9}Vdem_sq {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-6.502275{col 30}{space 2}  1.53139{col 41}{space 1}   -4.25{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-9.503744{col 71}{space 3}-3.500805
{txt}{space 11}gdppc {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.2853965{col 30}{space 2} .0497096{col 41}{space 1}   -5.74{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.3828255{col 71}{space 3}-.1879674
{txt}{space 7}log_milex {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .144733{col 30}{space 2} .0272806{col 41}{space 1}    5.31{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}  .091264{col 71}{space 3}  .198202
{txt}{space 7}log_rents {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  .036835{col 30}{space 2} .0521906{col 41}{space 1}    0.71{col 50}{space 3}0.480{col 58}{space 4}-.0654568{col 71}{space 3} .1391268
{txt}{space 10}rugged {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0308471{col 30}{space 2} .0183554{col 41}{space 1}    1.68{col 50}{space 3}0.093{col 58}{space 4}-.0051289{col 71}{space 3}  .066823
{txt}{space 6}total_size {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0381083{col 30}{space 2} .0070702{col 41}{space 1}    5.39{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}  .024251{col 71}{space 3} .0519656
{txt}{space 9}post_cw {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.4585418{col 30}{space 2}  .150687{col 41}{space 1}   -3.04{col 50}{space 3}0.002{col 58}{space 4}-.7538828{col 71}{space 3}-.1632007
{txt}{space 5}peace_years {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0412277{col 30}{space 2} .0263867{col 41}{space 1}   -1.56{col 50}{space 3}0.118{col 58}{space 4}-.0929446{col 71}{space 3} .0104892
{txt}{space 2}peace_years_sq {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0024493{col 30}{space 2} .0012735{col 41}{space 1}    1.92{col 50}{space 3}0.054{col 58}{space 4}-.0000466{col 71}{space 3} .0049453
{txt}{space 2}peace_years_cb {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0000305{col 30}{space 2} .0000147{col 41}{space 1}   -2.08{col 50}{space 3}0.038{col 58}{space 4}-.0000593{col 71}{space 3}-1.73e-06
{txt}{space 11}_cons {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-2.578558{col 30}{space 2}  .622449{col 41}{space 1}   -4.14{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-3.798536{col 71}{space 3} -1.35858
{txt}{hline 17}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 38 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:probit}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Log-likelihood}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Model}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -278.474}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Intercept-only}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -334.553}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Chi-square}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Deviance(df=4719)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    556.947}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:R2}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.168}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.156}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McKelvey & Zavoina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.475}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cox-Snell/ML}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.023}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cragg-Uhler/Nagelkerke}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.178}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Efron}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.038}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Tjur's D}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.035}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.987}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:IC}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    564.947}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC divided by N}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.120}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:BIC(df=4)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    590.788}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Variance of}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      1.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:y-star}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      1.905}}}{space 1}

{com}. 
. outreg2 using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_probit.doc", word nonotes  lab bdec(3) pvalue addstat(Log pseudo-likelihood, e(ll)) nor2 title("Results") alpha(.001, .01, .05, .1) symbol(***, **, *, †) addnote(Dependent Variable is Civil Conflict Onset, *** p<0.001 ** p<.01 * p<0.05 † p<.1 , Robust Standard Errors are clustered by continent) append
{res}warning: addnote ignored in appended columns
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `"C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_probit.doc"'"':C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_probit.doc}
{browse `"/Users/benjaminleo/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/PGMs and CC Replication Matireals "' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_probit.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. *model 4 
. probit cw_onset lag_not_govt_pgm_count lag_govt_pgm_count v2x_polyarchy Vdem_sq gdppc log_milex log_rents rugged total_size post_cw peace_years peace_years_sq peace_years_cb, cluster(continent) robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-334.55302}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-294.77065}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-280.33723}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.52005}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.49977}  
Iteration 5:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.49972}  
Iteration 6:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-279.49972}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Probit regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:4,723}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:{help j_robustsingular##|_new:Wald chi2(3)}}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-279.49972}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.1646}

{txt}{ralign 83:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:5} clusters in {res:continent})}
{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 19}{c |}{col 31}    Robust
{col 1}         cw_onset{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  std. err.{col 43}      z{col 51}   P>|z|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
lag_not_govt_pg~t {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0409056{col 31}{space 2} .0192891{col 42}{space 1}    2.12{col 51}{space 3}0.034{col 59}{space 4} .0030997{col 72}{space 3} .0787116
{txt}lag_govt_pgm_co~t {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0107243{col 31}{space 2} .0165005{col 42}{space 1}    0.65{col 51}{space 3}0.516{col 59}{space 4} -.021616{col 72}{space 3} .0430646
{txt}{space 4}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 5.530618{col 31}{space 2} 1.300864{col 42}{space 1}    4.25{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 2.980971{col 72}{space 3} 8.080265
{txt}{space 10}Vdem_sq {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-6.591796{col 31}{space 2} 1.442414{col 42}{space 1}   -4.57{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-9.418876{col 72}{space 3}-3.764717
{txt}{space 12}gdppc {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.2906273{col 31}{space 2} .0540019{col 42}{space 1}   -5.38{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-.3964692{col 72}{space 3}-.1847855
{txt}{space 8}log_milex {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .1539427{col 31}{space 2} .0323652{col 42}{space 1}    4.76{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .0905082{col 72}{space 3} .2173773
{txt}{space 8}log_rents {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0377459{col 31}{space 2} .0500878{col 42}{space 1}    0.75{col 51}{space 3}0.451{col 59}{space 4}-.0604244{col 72}{space 3} .1359161
{txt}{space 11}rugged {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0339362{col 31}{space 2} .0175763{col 42}{space 1}    1.93{col 51}{space 3}0.054{col 59}{space 4}-.0005127{col 72}{space 3} .0683851
{txt}{space 7}total_size {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0370523{col 31}{space 2} .0075635{col 42}{space 1}    4.90{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .0222281{col 72}{space 3} .0518765
{txt}{space 10}post_cw {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.4443705{col 31}{space 2} .1574976{col 42}{space 1}   -2.82{col 51}{space 3}0.005{col 59}{space 4}-.7530602{col 72}{space 3}-.1356809
{txt}{space 6}peace_years {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.0441772{col 31}{space 2} .0234803{col 42}{space 1}   -1.88{col 51}{space 3}0.060{col 59}{space 4}-.0901976{col 72}{space 3} .0018433
{txt}{space 3}peace_years_sq {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0025643{col 31}{space 2} .0011862{col 42}{space 1}    2.16{col 51}{space 3}0.031{col 59}{space 4} .0002394{col 72}{space 3} .0048893
{txt}{space 3}peace_years_cb {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} -.000032{col 31}{space 2} .0000139{col 42}{space 1}   -2.30{col 51}{space 3}0.021{col 59}{space 4}-.0000593{col 72}{space 3}-4.73e-06
{txt}{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-2.617948{col 31}{space 2} .5864181{col 42}{space 1}   -4.46{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-3.767306{col 72}{space 3} -1.46859
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 51 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:probit}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Log-likelihood}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Model}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -279.500}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Intercept-only}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -334.553}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Chi-square}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Deviance(df=4719)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    558.999}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:R2}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.165}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.153}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McKelvey & Zavoina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.480}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cox-Snell/ML}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.023}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cragg-Uhler/Nagelkerke}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.174}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Efron}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.035}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Tjur's D}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.034}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.987}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:IC}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    566.999}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC divided by N}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.120}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:BIC(df=4)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    592.840}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Variance of}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      1.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:y-star}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      1.924}}}{space 1}

{com}. 
. outreg2 using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_probit.doc", word nonotes  lab bdec(3) pvalue addstat(Log pseudo-likelihood, e(ll)) nor2 title("Results") alpha(.001, .01, .05, .1) symbol(***, **, *, †) addnote(Dependent Variable is Civil Conflict Onset, *** p<0.001 ** p<.01 * p<0.05 † p<.1 , Robust Standard Errors are clustered by continent , R STD < 5) append
{res}warning: addnote ignored in appended columns
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `"C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_probit.doc"'"':C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_probit.doc}
{browse `"/Users/benjaminleo/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/PGMs and CC Replication Matireals "' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_probit.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. *Appendix Table 2: Rare events logit model  
. relogit cw_onset lag_presence v2x_polyarchy Vdem_sq gdppc log_milex log_rents rugged total_size post_cw peace_years peace_years_sq peace_years_cb, cluster(continent) 
{txt}(1,453 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs ={res}     4723

{txt}{hline 15}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 16}{c |}{col 28}    Robust
{col 1}      cw_onset{col 16}{c |} Coefficient{col 28}  std. err.{col 40}      z{col 48}   P>|z|{col 56}     [95% con{col 69}f. interval]
{hline 15}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 2}lag_presence {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .6169696{col 28}{space 2} .2662016{col 39}{space 1}    2.32{col 48}{space 3}0.020{col 56}{space 4}  .095224{col 69}{space 3} 1.138715
{txt}{space 1}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} 13.38215{col 28}{space 2} 3.498218{col 39}{space 1}    3.83{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4} 6.525764{col 69}{space 3} 20.23853
{txt}{space 7}Vdem_sq {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-15.62951{col 28}{space 2} 3.669951{col 39}{space 1}   -4.26{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}-22.82249{col 69}{space 3}-8.436544
{txt}{space 9}gdppc {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.6152306{col 28}{space 2} .1504751{col 39}{space 1}   -4.09{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}-.9101563{col 69}{space 3}-.3203048
{txt}{space 5}log_milex {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .3088682{col 28}{space 2} .0876424{col 39}{space 1}    3.52{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4} .1370923{col 69}{space 3} .4806441
{txt}{space 5}log_rents {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0867008{col 28}{space 2} .1316125{col 39}{space 1}    0.66{col 48}{space 3}0.510{col 56}{space 4} -.171255{col 69}{space 3} .3446566
{txt}{space 8}rugged {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0747881{col 28}{space 2} .0861196{col 39}{space 1}    0.87{col 48}{space 3}0.385{col 56}{space 4}-.0940031{col 69}{space 3} .2435793
{txt}{space 4}total_size {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}  .099991{col 28}{space 2} .0265123{col 39}{space 1}    3.77{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4} .0480279{col 69}{space 3} .1519541
{txt}{space 7}post_cw {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-1.049449{col 28}{space 2} .3675391{col 39}{space 1}   -2.86{col 48}{space 3}0.004{col 56}{space 4}-1.769812{col 69}{space 3}-.3290855
{txt}{space 3}peace_years {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.0899106{col 28}{space 2} .0663393{col 39}{space 1}   -1.36{col 48}{space 3}0.175{col 56}{space 4}-.2199332{col 69}{space 3} .0401121
{txt}peace_years_sq {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}  .005387{col 28}{space 2} .0032624{col 39}{space 1}    1.65{col 48}{space 3}0.099{col 56}{space 4}-.0010072{col 69}{space 3} .0117812
{txt}peace_years_cb {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.0000646{col 28}{space 2} .0000388{col 39}{space 1}   -1.66{col 48}{space 3}0.096{col 56}{space 4}-.0001406{col 69}{space 3} .0000115
{txt}{space 9}_cons {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-5.581533{col 28}{space 2} 1.672632{col 39}{space 1}   -3.34{col 48}{space 3}0.001{col 56}{space 4}-8.859831{col 69}{space 3}-2.303234
{txt}{hline 15}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. outreg2 using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_relogit.doc", word nonotes alpha(.001, .01, .05, .1) symbol(***, **, *, †) addnote(Dependent Variable is Civil Conflict Onset, *** p<0.001 ** p<.01 * p<0.05 † p<.1  , Robust Standard Errors are clustered by continent) replace
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `"C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_relogit.doc"'"':C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_relogit.doc}
{browse `"/Users/benjaminleo/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/PGMs and CC Replication Matireals "' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_relogit.txt""':seeout}

{com}. 
. *model 2
. relogit cw_onset lag_count v2x_polyarchy Vdem_sq gdppc log_milex log_rents rugged total_size post_cw peace_years peace_years_sq peace_years_cb, cluster(continent) 
{txt}(1,453 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs ={res}     4723

{txt}{hline 15}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 16}{c |}{col 28}    Robust
{col 1}      cw_onset{col 16}{c |} Coefficient{col 28}  std. err.{col 40}      z{col 48}   P>|z|{col 56}     [95% con{col 69}f. interval]
{hline 15}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}lag_count {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0518858{col 28}{space 2} .0419235{col 39}{space 1}    1.24{col 48}{space 3}0.216{col 56}{space 4}-.0302827{col 69}{space 3} .1340543
{txt}{space 1}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} 13.39748{col 28}{space 2} 3.625824{col 39}{space 1}    3.70{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4} 6.290999{col 69}{space 3} 20.50397
{txt}{space 7}Vdem_sq {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-15.74201{col 28}{space 2} 3.768281{col 39}{space 1}   -4.18{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4}-23.12771{col 69}{space 3}-8.356319
{txt}{space 9}gdppc {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.6789913{col 28}{space 2} .1523266{col 39}{space 1}   -4.46{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4} -.977546{col 69}{space 3}-.3804366
{txt}{space 5}log_milex {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .3554709{col 28}{space 2} .1057928{col 39}{space 1}    3.36{col 48}{space 3}0.001{col 56}{space 4} .1481208{col 69}{space 3}  .562821
{txt}{space 5}log_rents {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0888902{col 28}{space 2} .1264135{col 39}{space 1}    0.70{col 48}{space 3}0.482{col 56}{space 4}-.1588757{col 69}{space 3}  .336656
{txt}{space 8}rugged {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0813101{col 28}{space 2}  .063384{col 39}{space 1}    1.28{col 48}{space 3}0.200{col 56}{space 4}-.0429202{col 69}{space 3} .2055404
{txt}{space 4}total_size {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .1018458{col 28}{space 2} .0239657{col 39}{space 1}    4.25{col 48}{space 3}0.000{col 56}{space 4} .0548739{col 69}{space 3} .1488176
{txt}{space 7}post_cw {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-1.043135{col 28}{space 2} .3627193{col 39}{space 1}   -2.88{col 48}{space 3}0.004{col 56}{space 4}-1.754052{col 69}{space 3}-.3322183
{txt}{space 3}peace_years {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.0934722{col 28}{space 2} .0621575{col 39}{space 1}   -1.50{col 48}{space 3}0.133{col 56}{space 4}-.2152987{col 69}{space 3} .0283543
{txt}peace_years_sq {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} .0053618{col 28}{space 2} .0031746{col 39}{space 1}    1.69{col 48}{space 3}0.091{col 56}{space 4}-.0008602{col 69}{space 3} .0115838
{txt}peace_years_cb {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-.0000639{col 28}{space 2} .0000376{col 39}{space 1}   -1.70{col 48}{space 3}0.090{col 56}{space 4}-.0001377{col 69}{space 3} 9.91e-06
{txt}{space 9}_cons {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2}-5.352487{col 28}{space 2} 1.695681{col 39}{space 1}   -3.16{col 48}{space 3}0.002{col 56}{space 4}-8.675961{col 69}{space 3}-2.029014
{txt}{hline 15}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. outreg2 using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_relogit.doc", word nonotes alpha(.001, .01, .05, .1) symbol(***, **, *, †) addnote(Dependent Variable is Civil Conflict Onset, *** p<0.001 ** p<.01 * p<0.05 † p<.1 , Robust Standard Errors are clustered by continent) append
{res}warning: addnote ignored in appended columns
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `"C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_relogit.doc"'"':C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_relogit.doc}
{browse `"/Users/benjaminleo/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/PGMs and CC Replication Matireals "' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_relogit.txt""':seeout}

{com}. 
. *model 3
. relogit cw_onset lag_not_govt_pgm lag_govt_pgm v2x_polyarchy Vdem_sq gdppc log_milex log_rents rugged total_size post_cw peace_years peace_years_sq peace_years_cb, cluster(continent)
{txt}(1,453 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs ={res}     4723

{txt}{hline 17}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 18}{c |}{col 30}    Robust
{col 1}        cw_onset{col 18}{c |} Coefficient{col 30}  std. err.{col 42}      z{col 50}   P>|z|{col 58}     [95% con{col 71}f. interval]
{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
lag_not_govt_pgm {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .5952728{col 30}{space 2}  .113693{col 41}{space 1}    5.24{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .3724385{col 71}{space 3} .8181071
{txt}{space 4}lag_govt_pgm {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .1563951{col 30}{space 2} .2415697{col 41}{space 1}    0.65{col 50}{space 3}0.517{col 58}{space 4}-.3170728{col 71}{space 3}  .629863
{txt}{space 3}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} 12.88344{col 30}{space 2} 3.835634{col 41}{space 1}    3.36{col 50}{space 3}0.001{col 58}{space 4} 5.365739{col 71}{space 3} 20.40115
{txt}{space 9}Vdem_sq {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-15.14471{col 30}{space 2} 4.000301{col 41}{space 1}   -3.79{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-22.98515{col 71}{space 3}-7.304264
{txt}{space 11}gdppc {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}  -.66689{col 30}{space 2} .1419868{col 41}{space 1}   -4.70{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} -.945179{col 71}{space 3}-.3886011
{txt}{space 7}log_milex {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .3225195{col 30}{space 2} .0921139{col 41}{space 1}    3.50{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .1419797{col 71}{space 3} .5030594
{txt}{space 7}log_rents {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0939687{col 30}{space 2}  .130503{col 41}{space 1}    0.72{col 50}{space 3}0.471{col 58}{space 4}-.1618124{col 71}{space 3} .3497498
{txt}{space 10}rugged {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0854799{col 30}{space 2} .0567159{col 41}{space 1}    1.51{col 50}{space 3}0.132{col 58}{space 4}-.0256812{col 71}{space 3}  .196641
{txt}{space 6}total_size {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .1013826{col 30}{space 2} .0245315{col 41}{space 1}    4.13{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .0533017{col 71}{space 3} .1494635
{txt}{space 9}post_cw {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-1.122055{col 30}{space 2} .3589717{col 41}{space 1}   -3.13{col 50}{space 3}0.002{col 58}{space 4}-1.825627{col 71}{space 3}-.4184837
{txt}{space 5}peace_years {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} -.092267{col 30}{space 2}   .07429{col 41}{space 1}   -1.24{col 50}{space 3}0.214{col 58}{space 4}-.2378727{col 71}{space 3} .0533388
{txt}{space 2}peace_years_sq {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0053255{col 30}{space 2} .0035076{col 41}{space 1}    1.52{col 50}{space 3}0.129{col 58}{space 4}-.0015492{col 71}{space 3} .0122002
{txt}{space 2}peace_years_cb {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0000623{col 30}{space 2} .0000403{col 41}{space 1}   -1.55{col 50}{space 3}0.122{col 58}{space 4}-.0001413{col 71}{space 3} .0000166
{txt}{space 11}_cons {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-5.098843{col 30}{space 2} 1.700654{col 41}{space 1}   -3.00{col 50}{space 3}0.003{col 58}{space 4}-8.432064{col 71}{space 3}-1.765623
{txt}{hline 17}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. outreg2 using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_relogit.doc", word nonotes alpha(.001, .01, .05, .1) symbol(***, **, *, †) addnote(Dependent Variable is Civil Conflict Onset, *** p<0.001 ** p<.01 * p<0.05 † p<.1  , Robust Standard Errors are clustered by continent) append
{res}warning: addnote ignored in appended columns
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `"C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_relogit.doc"'"':C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_relogit.doc}
{browse `"/Users/benjaminleo/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/PGMs and CC Replication Matireals "' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_relogit.txt""':seeout}

{com}. 
. *Model 4
. relogit cw_onset lag_not_govt_pgm_count lag_govt_pgm_count  v2x_polyarchy Vdem_sq gdppc log_milex log_rents rugged total_size post_cw peace_years peace_years_sq peace_years_cb, cluster(continent)
{txt}(1,453 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs ={res}     4723

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 19}{c |}{col 31}    Robust
{col 1}         cw_onset{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  std. err.{col 43}      z{col 51}   P>|z|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
lag_not_govt_pg~t {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .1058132{col 31}{space 2} .0424995{col 42}{space 1}    2.49{col 51}{space 3}0.013{col 59}{space 4} .0225157{col 72}{space 3} .1891106
{txt}lag_govt_pgm_co~t {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0496417{col 31}{space 2} .0342953{col 42}{space 1}    1.45{col 51}{space 3}0.148{col 59}{space 4}-.0175758{col 72}{space 3} .1168592
{txt}{space 4}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 13.11822{col 31}{space 2} 3.465725{col 42}{space 1}    3.79{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 6.325528{col 72}{space 3} 19.91092
{txt}{space 10}Vdem_sq {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-15.37997{col 31}{space 2} 3.701742{col 42}{space 1}   -4.15{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-22.63525{col 72}{space 3}-8.124687
{txt}{space 12}gdppc {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.6692729{col 31}{space 2} .1520504{col 42}{space 1}   -4.40{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-.9672861{col 72}{space 3}-.3712596
{txt}{space 8}log_milex {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3447166{col 31}{space 2} .1036276{col 42}{space 1}    3.33{col 51}{space 3}0.001{col 59}{space 4} .1416101{col 72}{space 3}  .547823
{txt}{space 8}log_rents {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0968125{col 31}{space 2} .1244851{col 42}{space 1}    0.78{col 51}{space 3}0.437{col 59}{space 4}-.1471738{col 72}{space 3} .3407987
{txt}{space 11}rugged {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0841692{col 31}{space 2} .0521478{col 42}{space 1}    1.61{col 51}{space 3}0.107{col 59}{space 4}-.0180385{col 72}{space 3}  .186377
{txt}{space 7}total_size {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0991331{col 31}{space 2} .0253532{col 42}{space 1}    3.91{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .0494417{col 72}{space 3} .1488244
{txt}{space 10}post_cw {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-1.072213{col 31}{space 2} .3766348{col 42}{space 1}   -2.85{col 51}{space 3}0.004{col 59}{space 4}-1.810403{col 72}{space 3}-.3340219
{txt}{space 6}peace_years {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.0961122{col 31}{space 2} .0660507{col 42}{space 1}   -1.46{col 51}{space 3}0.146{col 59}{space 4}-.2255691{col 72}{space 3} .0333447
{txt}{space 3}peace_years_sq {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0054607{col 31}{space 2} .0032615{col 42}{space 1}    1.67{col 51}{space 3}0.094{col 59}{space 4}-.0009316{col 72}{space 3} .0118531
{txt}{space 3}peace_years_cb {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.0000646{col 31}{space 2}  .000038{col 42}{space 1}   -1.70{col 51}{space 3}0.089{col 59}{space 4}-.0001392{col 72}{space 3} 9.93e-06
{txt}{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-5.257333{col 31}{space 2} 1.637627{col 42}{space 1}   -3.21{col 51}{space 3}0.001{col 59}{space 4}-8.467023{col 72}{space 3}-2.047642
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. outreg2 using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_relogit.doc", word nonotes alpha(.001, .01, .05, .1) symbol(***, **, *, †) addnote(Dependent Variable is Civil Conflict Onset, *** p<0.001 ** p<.01 * p<0.05 † p<.1  , Robust Standard Errors are clustered by continent) append
{res}warning: addnote ignored in appended columns
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `"C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_relogit.doc"'"':C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_relogit.doc}
{browse `"/Users/benjaminleo/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/PGMs and CC Replication Matireals "' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_relogit.txt""':seeout}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *Appendix Table 3: Models With no controls 
. 
. *model 1
. logit cw_onset lag_presence 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-427.09687}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-411.19061}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-408.07016}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-408.06923}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-408.06923}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:5,556}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:1})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:38.06}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-408.06923}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0446}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}    cw_onset{col 14}{c |} Coefficient{col 26}  Std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
lag_presence {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.401905{col 26}{space 2} .2367281{col 37}{space 1}    5.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .9379261{col 67}{space 3} 1.865883
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.905549{col 26}{space 2} .1931614{col 37}{space 1}  -25.40{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-5.284138{col 67}{space 3} -4.52696
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:logit}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Log-likelihood}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Model}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -408.069}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Intercept-only}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -427.097}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Chi-square}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Deviance(df=5554)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    816.138}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:LR(df=1)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:     38.055}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:p-value}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:R2}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.045}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.040}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McKelvey & Zavoina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.118}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cox-Snell/ML}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.007}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cragg-Uhler/Nagelkerke}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.048}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Efron}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.007}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Tjur's D}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.007}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.985}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:IC}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    820.138}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC divided by N}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.148}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:BIC(df=2)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    833.384}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Variance of}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      3.290}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:y-star}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      3.730}}}{space 1}

{com}. 
. outreg2 using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_no_controls.doc", word nonotes alpha(.001, .01, .05, .1) symbol(***, **, *, †)  lab bdec(3) pvalue addstat(Log pseudo-likelihood, e(ll)) nor2 title("Results") addnote(Dependent Variable is Civil Conflict Onset, *** p<0.001 ** p<.01 * p<0.05 † p<.1 , Robust Standard Errors are clustered by continent) replace 
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `"C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_no_controls.doc"'"':C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_no_controls.doc}
{browse `"/Users/benjaminleo/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/PGMs and CC Replication Matireals "' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_no_controls.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. *model 2
. logit cw_onset lag_count 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-427.09687}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-415.53176}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-413.20396}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-413.20123}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-413.20123}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:5,556}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:1})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:27.79}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-413.20123}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0325}

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}    cw_onset{col 14}{c |} Coefficient{col 26}  Std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 3}lag_count {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .170497{col 26}{space 2} .0278358{col 37}{space 1}    6.13{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}   .11594{col 67}{space 3} .2250541
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.439006{col 26}{space 2} .1261643{col 37}{space 1}  -35.18{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-4.686283{col 67}{space 3}-4.191729
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:logit}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Log-likelihood}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Model}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -413.201}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Intercept-only}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -427.097}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Chi-square}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Deviance(df=5554)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    826.402}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:LR(df=1)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:     27.791}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:p-value}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:R2}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.033}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.028}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McKelvey & Zavoina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.032}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cox-Snell/ML}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.005}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cragg-Uhler/Nagelkerke}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.035}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Efron}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.003}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Tjur's D}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.011}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.985}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:     -0.012}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:IC}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    830.402}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC divided by N}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.149}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:BIC(df=2)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    843.648}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Variance of}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      3.290}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:y-star}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      3.399}}}{space 1}

{com}. 
. outreg2 using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_no_controls.doc", word nonotes alpha(.001, .01, .05, .1) symbol(***, **, *, †) lab bdec(3) pvalue addstat(Log pseudo-likelihood, e(ll)) nor2 title("Results") addnote(Dependent Variable is Civil Conflict Onset, *** p<0.001 ** p<.01 * p<0.05 † p<.1 , Robust Standard Errors are clustered by continent) append 
{res}warning: addnote ignored in appended columns
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `"C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_no_controls.doc"'"':C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_no_controls.doc}
{browse `"/Users/benjaminleo/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/PGMs and CC Replication Matireals "' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_no_controls.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. 
. *model 3
. logit cw_onset lag_not_govt_pgm lag_govt_pgm

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-427.09687}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-417.16154}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-408.30078}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-408.25403}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-408.25402}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:5,556}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:2})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:37.69}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-408.25402}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0441}

{txt}{hline 17}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        cw_onset{col 18}{c |} Coefficient{col 30}  Std. err.{col 42}      z{col 50}   P>|z|{col 58}     [95% con{col 71}f. interval]
{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
lag_not_govt_pgm {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} 1.060283{col 30}{space 2} .2410257{col 41}{space 1}    4.40{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .5878811{col 71}{space 3} 1.532685
{txt}{space 4}lag_govt_pgm {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .6905545{col 30}{space 2} .2402182{col 41}{space 1}    2.87{col 50}{space 3}0.004{col 58}{space 4} .2197355{col 71}{space 3} 1.161373
{txt}{space 11}_cons {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-4.743684{col 30}{space 2} .1641154{col 41}{space 1}  -28.90{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-5.065344{col 71}{space 3}-4.422024
{txt}{hline 17}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:logit}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Log-likelihood}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Model}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -408.254}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Intercept-only}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -427.097}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Chi-square}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Deviance(df=5553)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    816.508}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:LR(df=2)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:     37.686}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:p-value}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:R2}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.044}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.037}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McKelvey & Zavoina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.088}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cox-Snell/ML}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.007}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cragg-Uhler/Nagelkerke}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.047}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Efron}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.008}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Tjur's D}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.008}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.985}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:IC}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    822.508}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC divided by N}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.148}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:BIC(df=3)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    842.376}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Variance of}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      3.290}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:y-star}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      3.609}}}{space 1}

{com}. 
. outreg2 using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_no_controls.doc", word nonotes alpha(.001, .01, .05, .1) symbol(***, **, *, †) lab bdec(3) pvalue addstat(Log pseudo-likelihood, e(ll)) nor2 title("Results") addnote(Dependent Variable is Civil Conflict Onset, *** p<0.001 ** p<.01 * p<0.05 † p<.1 , Robust Standard Errors are clustered by continent) append 
{res}warning: addnote ignored in appended columns
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `"C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_no_controls.doc"'"':C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_no_controls.doc}
{browse `"/Users/benjaminleo/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/PGMs and CC Replication Matireals "' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_no_controls.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. *model 4
. logit cw_onset lag_not_govt_pgm_count lag_govt_pgm_count

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-427.09687}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-417.89987}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res: -412.0655}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-412.05305}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-412.05305}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:5,556}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:2})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:30.09}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-412.05305}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0352}

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         cw_onset{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      z{col 51}   P>|z|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
lag_not_govt_pg~t {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .1961123{col 31}{space 2} .0425231{col 42}{space 1}    4.61{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .1127687{col 72}{space 3}  .279456
{txt}lag_govt_pgm_co~t {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .1668155{col 31}{space 2} .0572754{col 42}{space 1}    2.91{col 51}{space 3}0.004{col 59}{space 4} .0545577{col 72}{space 3} .2790732
{txt}{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-4.436486{col 31}{space 2} .1260405{col 42}{space 1}  -35.20{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-4.683521{col 72}{space 3}-4.189451
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:logit}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Log-likelihood}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Model}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -412.053}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Intercept-only}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -427.097}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Chi-square}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Deviance(df=5553)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    824.106}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:LR(df=2)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:     30.088}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:p-value}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:R2}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.035}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.028}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McKelvey & Zavoina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.032}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cox-Snell/ML}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.005}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cragg-Uhler/Nagelkerke}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.038}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Efron}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.005}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Tjur's D}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.013}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.985}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:     -0.012}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:IC}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    830.106}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC divided by N}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.149}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:BIC(df=3)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    849.974}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Variance of}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      3.290}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:y-star}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      3.398}}}{space 1}

{com}. 
. outreg2 using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_no_controls.doc", word nonotes alpha(.001, .01, .05, .1) symbol(***, **, *, †) lab bdec(3) pvalue addstat(Log pseudo-likelihood, e(ll)) nor2 title("Results") addnote(Dependent Variable is Civil Conflict Onset, *** p<0.001 ** p<.01 * p<0.05 † p<.1 , Robust Standard Errors are clustered by continent) append 
{res}warning: addnote ignored in appended columns
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `"C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_no_controls.doc"'"':C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_no_controls.doc}
{browse `"/Users/benjaminleo/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/PGMs and CC Replication Matireals "' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_no_controls.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *Appendix Table 4: Informal / Semi-official Variables 
. 
. *Alternative operationalization 
. bysort ccode (year): gen lag_presence_semiofficial = presence_semiofficial[_n-1]
{txt}(799 missing values generated)

{com}. bysort ccode (year): gen lag_presence_semiofficial_count = presence_semiofficial_count[_n-1]
{txt}(799 missing values generated)

{com}. bysort ccode (year): gen lag_presence_informal = presence_informal[_n-1]
{txt}(799 missing values generated)

{com}. bysort ccode (year): gen lag_presence_informal_count = presence_informal_count[_n-1]
{txt}(799 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. *type 
. logit cw_onset lag_presence_semiofficial lag_presence_informal v2x_polyarchy Vdem_sq gdppc log_milex log_rents rugged total_size post_cw peace_years peace_years_sq peace_years_cb, cluster(continent) robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-324.23952}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-300.41441}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-272.75586}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-270.95503}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-270.90399}  
Iteration 5:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-270.90377}  
Iteration 6:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-270.90377}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:4,596}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:{help j_robustsingular##|_new:Wald chi2(3)}}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-270.90377}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.1645}

{txt}{ralign 83:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:5} clusters in {res:continent})}
{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 19}{c |}{col 31}    Robust
{col 1}         cw_onset{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  std. err.{col 43}      z{col 51}   P>|z|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
lag_presence_se~l {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .1470916{col 31}{space 2} .2774218{col 42}{space 1}    0.53{col 51}{space 3}0.596{col 59}{space 4} -.396645{col 72}{space 3} .6908283
{txt}lag_presence_in~l {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0222426{col 31}{space 2} .3134366{col 42}{space 1}    0.07{col 51}{space 3}0.943{col 59}{space 4}-.5920818{col 72}{space 3}  .636567
{txt}{space 4}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 15.12192{col 31}{space 2} 3.417673{col 42}{space 1}    4.42{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 8.423408{col 72}{space 3} 21.82044
{txt}{space 10}Vdem_sq {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} -17.5886{col 31}{space 2} 3.782951{col 42}{space 1}   -4.65{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-25.00305{col 72}{space 3}-10.17415
{txt}{space 12}gdppc {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.6951386{col 31}{space 2} .1504223{col 42}{space 1}   -4.62{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} -.989961{col 72}{space 3}-.4003163
{txt}{space 8}log_milex {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3671583{col 31}{space 2} .1059558{col 42}{space 1}    3.47{col 51}{space 3}0.001{col 59}{space 4} .1594887{col 72}{space 3} .5748279
{txt}{space 8}log_rents {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0844119{col 31}{space 2} .1470268{col 42}{space 1}    0.57{col 51}{space 3}0.566{col 59}{space 4}-.2037553{col 72}{space 3} .3725792
{txt}{space 11}rugged {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0538198{col 31}{space 2} .0876854{col 42}{space 1}    0.61{col 51}{space 3}0.539{col 59}{space 4}-.1180403{col 72}{space 3}   .22568
{txt}{space 7}total_size {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .1084434{col 31}{space 2} .0259355{col 42}{space 1}    4.18{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .0576107{col 72}{space 3} .1592761
{txt}{space 10}post_cw {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-1.072678{col 31}{space 2} .3802664{col 42}{space 1}   -2.82{col 51}{space 3}0.005{col 59}{space 4}-1.817986{col 72}{space 3}-.3273696
{txt}{space 6}peace_years {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.0960957{col 31}{space 2} .0454284{col 42}{space 1}   -2.12{col 51}{space 3}0.034{col 59}{space 4}-.1851337{col 72}{space 3}-.0070577
{txt}{space 3}peace_years_sq {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0058814{col 31}{space 2} .0026186{col 42}{space 1}    2.25{col 51}{space 3}0.025{col 59}{space 4}  .000749{col 72}{space 3} .0110139
{txt}{space 3}peace_years_cb {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.0000749{col 31}{space 2} .0000322{col 42}{space 1}   -2.33{col 51}{space 3}0.020{col 59}{space 4} -.000138{col 72}{space 3}-.0000118
{txt}{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-5.760664{col 31}{space 2} 1.569428{col 42}{space 1}   -3.67{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-8.836687{col 72}{space 3}-2.684641
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 20 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:logit}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Log-likelihood}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Model}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -270.904}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Intercept-only}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -324.240}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Chi-square}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Deviance(df=4592)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    541.808}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:R2}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.164}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.152}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McKelvey & Zavoina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.626}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cox-Snell/ML}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.023}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cragg-Uhler/Nagelkerke}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.174}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Efron}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.043}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Tjur's D}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.040}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.987}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:IC}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    549.808}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC divided by N}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.120}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:BIC(df=4)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    575.539}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Variance of}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      3.290}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:y-star}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      8.787}}}{space 1}

{com}. 
. outreg2 using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_alt_op.doc", word nonotes alpha(.001, .01, .05, .1) symbol(***, **, *, †) lab bdec(3) pvalue addstat(Log pseudo-likelihood, e(ll)) nor2 title("Results") addnote(Dependent Variable is Civil Conflict Onset, *** p<0.001 ** p<.01 * p<0.05 † p<.1 , Robust Standard Errors are clustered by continent) replace 
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `"C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_alt_op.doc"'"':C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_alt_op.doc}
{browse `"/Users/benjaminleo/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/PGMs and CC Replication Matireals "' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_alt_op.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. *type count 
. logit cw_onset lag_presence_semiofficial_count lag_presence_informal_count v2x_polyarchy Vdem_sq gdppc log_milex log_rents rugged total_size post_cw peace_years peace_years_sq peace_years_cb, cluster(continent) robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-324.23952}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-309.10881}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-272.69787}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-270.88875}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-270.83767}  
Iteration 5:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-270.83743}  
Iteration 6:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-270.83743}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:4,596}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:{help j_robustsingular##|_new:Wald chi2(3)}}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-270.83743}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.1647}

{txt}{ralign 83:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:5} clusters in {res:continent})}
{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 19}{c |}{col 31}    Robust
{col 1}         cw_onset{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  std. err.{col 43}      z{col 51}   P>|z|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
lag_presence_se~t {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0308822{col 31}{space 2} .0517072{col 42}{space 1}    0.60{col 51}{space 3}0.550{col 59}{space 4} -.070462{col 72}{space 3} .1322265
{txt}lag_presence_in~t {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.0460747{col 31}{space 2}  .134664{col 42}{space 1}   -0.34{col 51}{space 3}0.732{col 59}{space 4}-.3100112{col 72}{space 3} .2178619
{txt}{space 4}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 15.15121{col 31}{space 2} 3.264628{col 42}{space 1}    4.64{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 8.752657{col 72}{space 3} 21.54976
{txt}{space 10}Vdem_sq {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-17.71588{col 31}{space 2} 3.494744{col 42}{space 1}   -5.07{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-24.56545{col 72}{space 3}-10.86631
{txt}{space 12}gdppc {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.6983596{col 31}{space 2} .1446318{col 42}{space 1}   -4.83{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-.9818327{col 72}{space 3}-.4148865
{txt}{space 8}log_milex {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3760707{col 31}{space 2} .0951945{col 42}{space 1}    3.95{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .1894928{col 72}{space 3} .5626485
{txt}{space 8}log_rents {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}  .075393{col 31}{space 2} .1434802{col 42}{space 1}    0.53{col 51}{space 3}0.599{col 59}{space 4} -.205823{col 72}{space 3}  .356609
{txt}{space 11}rugged {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0520214{col 31}{space 2}  .075793{col 42}{space 1}    0.69{col 51}{space 3}0.492{col 59}{space 4}-.0965301{col 72}{space 3}  .200573
{txt}{space 7}total_size {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .1089407{col 31}{space 2} .0278304{col 42}{space 1}    3.91{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .0543942{col 72}{space 3} .1634873
{txt}{space 10}post_cw {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} -1.05993{col 31}{space 2} .3605702{col 42}{space 1}   -2.94{col 51}{space 3}0.003{col 59}{space 4}-1.766635{col 72}{space 3}-.3532259
{txt}{space 6}peace_years {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.1017823{col 31}{space 2} .0423815{col 42}{space 1}   -2.40{col 51}{space 3}0.016{col 59}{space 4}-.1848486{col 72}{space 3}-.0187161
{txt}{space 3}peace_years_sq {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0060282{col 31}{space 2} .0024778{col 42}{space 1}    2.43{col 51}{space 3}0.015{col 59}{space 4} .0011718{col 72}{space 3} .0108846
{txt}{space 3}peace_years_cb {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.0000764{col 31}{space 2} .0000308{col 42}{space 1}   -2.48{col 51}{space 3}0.013{col 59}{space 4}-.0001367{col 72}{space 3}-.0000161
{txt}{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-5.717593{col 31}{space 2} 1.552557{col 42}{space 1}   -3.68{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-8.760549{col 72}{space 3}-2.674636
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 20 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. fitstat
{res}
{txt}{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:logit}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Log-likelihood}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Model}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -270.837}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Intercept-only}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:   -324.240}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Chi-square}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Deviance(df=4592)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    541.675}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:R2}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.165}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McFadden(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.152}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:McKelvey & Zavoina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.628}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cox-Snell/ML}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.023}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Cragg-Uhler/Nagelkerke}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.175}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Efron}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.042}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Tjur's D}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.040}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.987}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:Count(adjusted)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.000}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:IC}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    549.675}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:AIC divided by N}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      0.120}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:BIC(df=4)}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:    575.407}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{hline 25}{c   +}{hline 12}
{space 0}{res:{lalign 25:Variance of}}{c |}{space 12}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      3.290}}}{space 1}
{space 0}{space 0}{ralign 24:y-star}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:{res:{sf:      8.841}}}{space 1}

{com}. 
. outreg2 using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_alt_op.doc", word nonotes alpha(.001, .01, .05, .1) symbol(***, **, *, †) lab bdec(3) pvalue addstat(Log pseudo-likelihood, e(ll)) nor2 title("Results") addnote(Dependent Variable is Civil Conflict Onset, *** p<0.001 ** p<.01 * p<0.05 † p<.1 , Robust Standard Errors are clustered by continent) append
{res}warning: addnote ignored in appended columns
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `"C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_alt_op.doc"'"':C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_alt_op.doc}
{browse `"/Users/benjaminleo/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/PGMs and CC Replication Matireals "' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "C:\Users\benjaminleo\Downloads\PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics\results_alt_op.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
{txt}end of do-file

{com}. log close
      {txt}name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}/Users/benjaminleo/Downloads/PGMs_and_CW_onset_Empirics/Spring 25 PGMs CCs Log File .smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}closed on:  {res}15 Jan 2025, 10:04:36
{txt}{.-}
{smcl}
{txt}{sf}{ul off}